Escape Velocity-- Will we make it?

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  • @ductapeguy 3 weeks

    From one of @Burrsettles annual FAWManalysis posts: https://slackprop.wordpress.com/2017/...
    "“FAWM Escape Velocity.” If there are 28×24×60 = 40,320 minutes in February, and the average song is 3.5 minutes long, then after 11,520 songs we will have created more music than is actually possible to listen to in the month of February… and that’s assuming you listen non-stop! This seems to be a metaphysical barrier we just can’t penetrate. (Credit goes to fawmer Tim Wille for coining the term.)"

    We are currently at 9194 songs with about 44 hours to go?
    Will we reach escape velocity 11520+ songs this year?
    How many songs will we reach? Place your bets below?

  • @keithcuts 3 weeks

    That’s kind of fascinating

  • @tcelliott  3 weeks

    I was kind of wondering where the bet how many songs we will end up with thread was. I've also noticed the song posting seems to have upticked in the past day or two. Getting quicker.

    My guess: 10454

  • @mikeb 3 weeks

    Over 60 songs posted in the last hour. My guess is it will exceed escape velocity - 11811 (because the number looks nice).

  • @spinhead 3 weeks

    My guess: 10101. (No, geeks, I don't mean 21.)

  • @erikleppen 3 weeks

    "We are currently at 9194 songs with about 44 hours to go?"
    If the rate of songs (songs added per hour) is constant, then the expected final number can be calculated as
    (total hours in Feb) / (hours passed in Feb) * 9194
    = (28 x 24) / (28 x 24 - 44) x 9194
    = 672 / 628 x 9194
    = 1.0873... * 9194
    = 9997.3...

    But I don't know if the rate of songs is constant. I believe there are folks who upload most of their stuff near the end of the month. But there are also people who start out fast and then it dwindles down a bit.

    I see people are doing a guessing game. So let my guess be 9997. Not because I think it's right, but because my calculation comes up with that, and it's a nice number 😀

  • @standup  3 weeks

    I think the last day we'll see a much higher number of songs posted than usual. I'm sure there lots of slopes in the rate -- fast out of the gate, various people having life intervene or hitting a slump. Then a burst of activity on the last day.

    So my guess is 10,666 songs.

  • @keithcuts 3 weeks

    We’ll probably get there for one reason...it shed be easy to guess

  • @fearlessflight2014  3 weeks

    @easyshed might make it to escape velocity on their own if their collab posting keeps growing exponentially like it has done over the last 24 hours...

  • @adforperu  3 weeks

    My guess.. 10,487

  • @haim  3 weeks

    10,498

  • @keithcuts 3 weeks

    @fearlessflight2014 you wood say that

  • @pearlmanhattan  3 weeks

    10, 330

  • @siebass 3 weeks

    We made it last year just barely, with some epic efforts from lots of folks. I know I have a few placeholders as I didn't participate much this year, so those may drop off if I can't get things done early march. We'll see how it finishes up shortly.

  • @elesimo  3 weeks

    My guess is exactly 10,000.

  • @tuneslayer2018  3 weeks

    There's only one conclusion: We need to start writing longer songs.

    Seriously, I don't think any of mine top three minutes unless I do a fair amount of instrumental padding.

  • @siebass 3 weeks

    That means you are right on track for the length of a modern successful song!

  • @spingo  3 weeks

    @tuneslayer2018 I'm lucky if I hit a full minute, sometimes. I don't have much patience for repetition or padding either!

    Also, following the tally now, thanks to You People <tm>.

    Is there anywhere to see how many FAWMers there are?

  • @elesimo  3 weeks

    @spingo the FAWMers page (https://fawm.org/fawmers/) says there are 2461 people (if you count @easyshed).

  • @metalfoot  3 weeks

    Nope, we won't do it.

  • @erikleppen 3 weeks

    It's 10009 now.

    But what >is< the average length of songs? I'd be curious. I've seen quite a few that were 7:00, but also a many of only 1 minute or so. Curious how that would average out.

  • @spingo  3 weeks

    @erikleppen Yeah, I have 27 songs and I would be shocked if I broke a half-hour.

    @elesimo And how could we not! Thanks -- 2463 now. 4 promo/spam accounts are the last in. Why in the world would they think that's a good idea? The Ramada Inn? What the heck.

  • @klaus  3 weeks

    Help/FAQ suggests: aim for three minutes. But songs have their own "inner clock". Hmm..that would be an odd challenge to make all your demos exactly 3:00. And make it sound natural and not padded.

    Also, I'm wondering when there are lots of lyrics-only entries so, how long are they? Maybe count the words and time them with tempo at 120?

    This escape velocity is a nice idea but it's purely theoretical. I think there is only one Fawmer who has taken the time to listen all of the songs.

  • @torniojaws  3 weeks

    @erikleppen I'd wager the average is pretty much 3:00, if you would/could check it 😀 That's what the majority of all songs in the world (...) generally clock in at, so it seems to be the golden standard.

  • @jmadison  3 weeks

    For curiosity, I just added up and averaged the 15 songs I have up. My average is 3:14, which is kind of surprising to me. I expected my average to be lower.

  • @yam655 3 weeks

    Well, I'm not helping reach escape velocity that well this year. Last year, I wrote/recorded/posted 28 songs on the last day.

    When I started I had a lot of short songs. The whole reason I started the #3in10 was to explicitly work on improvising longer songs.

  • @haim  3 weeks

    I was wrong 😏

  • @sailingmagpie  3 weeks

    Is it too late to guess?

  • @spinhead 3 weeks

    @tcelliott So close. Off by one digit. In the hundreds place.

  • @tcelliott  3 weeks

    @spinhead I noticed that and was pretty proud of it until I realized that, unlike the powerball, getting all but one digit doesn't win you any cash.

  • @spinhead 3 weeks

    @tcelliott Um, does getting them ALL right win you anything? Because I might have tried harder.

  • @standup  3 weeks

    I was within 12 of the total. Not bad. But of course, as happens every year, the number is going to start dropping.

  • @tcelliott  2 weeks

    @spinhead Are talking about the lottery or the fawmsong yearly guessing game? I'm not positive in either instance, tbh.

  • @spinhead 2 weeks

    @tcelliott FAWMsong guessing game. But, yeah, no clue here either.

    @standup Was that skill or chance? That's like 0.1% off.

  • @standup  2 weeks

    @spinhead pure chance

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